Sopra Steria: This boring IT business is a hidden Defense and Sovereignty play
>10% FCF yield asymmetric play on the EU Defense supercycle
Welcome to the 38th investment case, 32th resilience and 20th reshoring/sovereignty on Crack the Market (and the most comprehensive Sopra Steria investment case you will find online)! Join me as I dissect an unloved IT services business, printing money as a trusted partner for large EU corporates and governments and a secret play on the EU defense supercycle at a ridiculous valuation despite improved fundamentals in the last years, poised to recover as organic growth inflects.
Twice a week, I will release deep dives into stocks and sectors that fit into the three themes that I see winning in this age of tariffs and deglobalization: resilience, sovereignty & reshoring, China. I will then deep dive into the opportunities in the AI data center value chain.
Take advantage of this once in a generation opportunity to build long term wealth by investing in great stocks that will deliver returns for your portfolio for years to come.
You can already read my first 37 deep dives, all of which I see as winners in this new world of tariffs and deglobalization:
ASML (reshoring & China idea): The most innovative company in the world will 2.5x its EPS by 2030.
LKQ (resilience idea): The most defensive business in the auto industry is a tariff winner and could become a compounder.
Atlas Copco (resilience, reshoring & China idea): The best industrials business in the world is on sale, extremely resilient and will benefit from US reshoring.
Badger Meter (resilience idea): The perfect business in the perfect end market, water meters are the definition of resilience.
Knorr Bremse (resilience idea): Who knew making brakes was this lucrative? Rerating with self help story and upside from German infra plan.
Flex (reshoring idea): The electronics manufacturing giant building Nvidia’s servers and enabling reshoring is becoming a better business.
Itron (resilience & reshoring idea): Riding the grid investment super cycle and enabling smart grids.
Roper (resilience idea): A resilient cashflow compounder in the software space with inflecting growth.
RELX (resilience idea): The company to own forever – one of the very best businesses on Earth.
CPKC (resilience & reshoring idea): The rail connecting Canada/US/Mexico and benefiting from reshoring.
Novo Nordisk (resilience idea): The most exciting pharma company in the world is misunderstood and its growth engine is ready to roar back to life.
Kurita (resilience, reshoring & China idea): Water services expert with improving margins and benefiting from reshoring of semiconductor production.
Halma (resilience idea): High quality compounder in safety, health and environmental technologies.
Quanta Services (resilience & reshoring idea): Countercyclical compounder riding a multi decade infrastructure buildout.
Infineon (China idea): Power semiconductor leader with strong structural drivers (AI power and China auto) amidst a cyclical recovery.
Hubbell (resilience & reshoring idea): Pure play on US electrification demand driven by AI and grid investment cycle.
Iberdrola (resilience & reshoring idea): Best integrated utility in the world with a stellar track record and solid growth driven by networks and renewables
Nvidia (AI & data center idea): The backbone of the AI world is unstoppable.
Veolia (resilience & reshoring idea): Resource management giant (water, waste, energy) due for a rerating.
TJX (resilience idea): The retail giant that keeps winning.
DSM-Firmenich (resilience idea): The diversified ingredient powerhouse benefiting from a transformational deal.
Zoetis (resilience idea): Leader in animal healthcare.
Prysmian (reshoring idea): Global cable leader entering a golden age.
Bentley Systems (resilience & reshoring idea): The software compounder bringing infrastructure into the AI age.
Givaudan (resilience idea): The highest quality and most resilient ingredient compounder has a compelling valuation.
First Solar (reshoring idea): The rising Sun in a new electricity supercycle.
Arcadis (resilience & reshoring idea): An engineering and design consultancy giant poised for a rerating.
Thermo Fisher (resilience & reshoring idea): Life Science tools giant just had its clearing event and is a stealth reshoring winner.
Nexans (reshoring idea): Electrification pure play with visibility into 2030.
Croda (resilience idea): A covid darling with a ridiculous valuation is at an inflection point.
Copart (resilience idea): One of the best businesses on Earth is being sold off, should you jump in?
Schneider Electric (resilience & reshoring idea): The Electrification champion that keeps compounding.
Cadence (resilience idea): A defensive compounder in the semi space & one of the most profitable software businesses in the world is getting better.
SAP (resilience idea): The unstoppable growth engine behind every business.
FICO (resilience idea): The Score Behind the Score.
Siemens (resilience & reshoring idea): The best conglomerate on Earth is sitting on EUR70bn of optionality.
MP Materials (resilience & reshoring idea): The Western rare earth champion.
After reading this article, you will understand why this company is so special thanks its dominant position within critical sectors of the European economy, especially defense, what it does, how it compounded EPS and FCF for 2+ decades and should continue to do so, why its valuation has derated so much and why it may just be at an inflection point and why it is one of the best hidden EU defense plays.
In this article I go through:
Sopra Steria’s business and it became such a powerful niche European IT Services provider, delivering resilient growth for decades.
How the company has relentlessly built dominant positions in critical parts of the economy and improved its margins over the last years.
How fears around the company’s near term growth outlook have slashed its valuation and why Sopra might just be turning the corner.
How it has quietly built the strongest Defense IT business in Europe, becoming a Defense and Sovereignty play at a time when the continent is massively boosting its defense budgets.
Why the stock is discounting a worst case scenario.
