TJX: The retail giant that keeps winning

World class and defensive retailer perfect to navigate an uncertain world

Welcome to the 20th investment case and 17th resilience idea on Crack the Market (and the most comprehensive TJX investment case you will find online)! Join me as I dissect arguably one of the best run retailers in the world and an off-price champion that keeps on compounding no matter the economic and retail environment it is in.

Twice a week, I will release deep dives into stocks and sectors that fit into the three themes that I see winning in this age of tariffs and deglobalization: resilience, sovereignty & reshoring, China. I will then deep dive into the opportunities in the AI data center value chain.

Take advantage of this once in a generation opportunity to build long term wealth by investing in great stocks that will deliver returns for your portfolio for years to come.

You can already read my first 19 deep dives, all of which I see as winners in this new world of tariffs and deglobalization:

• ASML (reshoring & China idea): The most innovative company in the world will 2.5x its EPS by 2030.

• LKQ (resilience idea): The most defensive business in the auto industry is a tariff winner and could become a compounder.

• Atlas Copco (resilience, reshoring & China idea): The best industrials business in the world is on sale, extremely resilient and will benefit from US reshoring.

• Badger Meter (resilience idea): The perfect business in the perfect end market, water meters are the definition of resilience.

• Knorr Bremse (resilience idea): Who knew making brakes was this lucrative? Rerating with self help story and upside from German infra plan.

• Flex (reshoring idea): The electronics manufacturing giant building Nvidia’s servers and enabling reshoring is becoming a better business.

• Itron (resilience & reshoring idea): Riding the grid investment super cycle and enabling smart grids.

• Roper (resilience idea): A resilient cashflow compounder in the software space with inflecting growth.

• RELX (resilience idea): The company to own forever – one of the very best businesses on Earth.

• CPKC (resilience & reshoring idea): The rail connecting Canada/US/Mexico and benefiting from reshoring.

• Novo Nordisk (resilience idea): The most exciting pharma company in the world is misunderstood and its growth engine is ready to roar back to life.

• Kurita (resilience, reshoring & China idea): Water services expert with improving margins and benefiting from reshoring of semiconductor production.

• Halma (resilience idea): High quality compounder in safety, health and environmental technologies.

• Quanta Services (resilience & reshoring idea): Countercyclical compounder riding a multi decade infrastructure buildout.

• Infineon (China idea): Power semiconductor leader with strong structural drivers (AI power and China auto) amidst a cyclical recovery.

• Hubbell (resilience & reshoring idea): Pure play on US electrification demand driven by AI and grid investment cycle.

• Iberdrola (resilience & reshoring idea): Best integrated utility in the world with a stellar track record and solid growth driven by networks and renewables

• Nvidia (AI & data center idea): The backbone of the AI world is unstoppable.

• Veolia (resilience & reshoring idea): Resource management giant (water, waste, energy) due for a rerating.

After reading this article, you will understand why this company is so resilient and how it has outperformed the retail sector for years, how its scale and flexible business model sets it apart, why this is one of the very best run retailers in the world, and why the tariff chaos that is hurting most retailers could actually benefit TJX.

In this article I go through:

1. Why the off price model is so flexible and why it might be the best retail business model out there.

2. Why TJX is so dominant in this off price segment.

3. How TJX has outperformed the retail sector in the last few years and why it should continue to do so going forward thanks to a massive TAM opportunity.

4. How TJX is taking advantage of the tariff chaos to further strengthen its position and accelerate market share gains and therefore revenue growth.

5. Why its strong management team with decades of experience and execution makes it one of the very best run retailers in the world.

TJX Investment Case